Fairly soon after getting the football for the first time Saturday night, the BYU Cougars will face a fourth-down situation. That means the drive will have lasted longer than their first possession of each of the last two meetings with Utah.
And then Jonny Linehan actually will punt the ball, an improvement of his strategy in the fourth quarter last weekend vs. LSU.
That’s the critical phase of the Cougars’ effort to stage a mild upset in Provo. Yes, mild. The pick of BYU to break the Utes’ six-game winning streak in the rivalry is not some contrived, outlandish suspension of logic. This forecast merely represents a willingness to overlook some recent evidence, or at least not overreact to it.
Las Vegas oddsmakers initially favored BYU this week. Using similar models, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Cougars a 52.1 percent chance of winning. So, yeah, it can happen.
All the Cougars have to do is follow coach Kalani Sitake’s instruction to Linehan, after it was too late in New Orleans: “Kick the football!”
There’s more to be done, but that would be a start. The Cougars never got to the punting stage on their first five possessions of the 2015 Las Vegas Bowl against Utah. They lost five turnovers, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns, as they fell behind 35-0.
And then last September in Salt Lake City, BYU’s first offensive play resulted in a Utah touchdown on Sunia Tauteoli’s pick-six. Think about it: In two games, the Utes have scored only one touchdown after taking possession via any method other than a turnover in BYU territory.
Seven straight wins for Utah? That most recently happened in the 1950s, when BYU football was an afterthought on the campus. The school cares about the sport now. Even with Pac-12 advantages, Utah shouldn’t dominate the rivalry to that degree.
I picked BYU to win a close game last season, saying senior quarterback Taysom Hill would make the difference with his running ability. I missed by 3 yards. Hill was stuffed on a 2-point conversion attempt in the last minute after running for his second touchdown.
In Provo, junior quarterback Tanner Mangum will do just enough to win.
We’ve all made fun of the Cougars this week, while questioning Mangum, offensive coordinator Ty Detmer and everyone else involved with BYU’s failed effort to cross the 50-yard line vs. LSU in a 27-0 loss. The Cougars have to convert third-down plays – starting with giving themselves more manageable distances — to sustain drives, score points and stay in the game.
The defense can help. BYU’s average starting field position against LSU was its own 18-yard line. That has to change, somehow. It’s true that BYU’s offense couldn’t take full advantage of six Utah turnovers last year, but even three takeaways Saturday would be a nice gift to a Cougar offense that needs a boost.
Once the Cougars discover they’re not facing anything quite like LSU’s level of athletes, the offense should develop some rhythm and confidence. And who knows how Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley will react in his first start on the road, against an FBS opponent.
The rivalry game always will matter more to BYU, for as long as the program remains independent. To say there’s no pressure on Utah, though? That’s silly. And one of these quarterbacks has come through in the end of college football games, with the outcome in doubt. That’s Mangum, who ran for a touchdown the last time he touched the ball against Utah.
The Utes ran out the clock in Las Vegas to preserve their 35-28 win. Mangum will get the ball back Saturday, and he’ll do something with it: BYU 21, Utah 20.