Utah will beat BYU for the seventh straight time on Saturday night at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and for the 12th time in 15 games.
Why?
You know the answer.
Talent.
It’s not that complicated. Of all the reasons to go one way or the other in predicting a rivalry game, with so much emotion and investment pouring in from both sides, the team with the better players is the best thing to count on, maybe the only thing.
What? In looking for victory, you gonna go with first- or second-hand emotions? With feelings? With anger? With revenge? With desire? With need? With hope? With desperation? With any kind of passion? With this or that team wants it more?
Save that for Hollywood. It happens on occasion, but it’s not the way to bet.
Truth: Both teams want to win in the worst way.
BYU has to win, considering the fact that the Cougars are on the brink of a breakdown, of an identity crisis. If they lose again, on their home field in front of their home fans, they might just fall to the turf and cry. All that frustration built up over all these years and now, playing in the friendly confines, against a team that sent 16 players off to the NFL after last season, including four of its five starters along the offensive line, a team now featuring a sophomore quarterback starting the second game of his college career, and … they lose?
Catastrophe.
Problem for them is, the Utes are equally motivated by a feeling of responsibility, feeling the burden of carrying on a tradition that commenced immediately after a loss in 2009, the last time Utah fell to BYU, when Kyle Whittingham stood before his players in the locker room and told them that his team would never again taste defeat at the hands of the Cougars. You think they want to be the ones who stumble and mess over that vow?
If all that’s a wash, what’s left?
Yup. Talent.
And the Utes have more of it. More speed, more athleticism, more physicality.
They have a defense that not only will be difficult to run on, but that has been drilled over and over in Whittingham’s ever-present philosophy to first and foremost stop the run. If Utah can come anywhere close to doing what LSU did against BYU — hold it to negligible yardage on the ground — and force the Cougars to throw, everyone knowing that they will be forced to throw, that means trouble for an offense that has been defined by it thus far this season, even, in this case, against a younger secondary.
What about strategy, about coaching brilliance?
If Ty Detmer coached and coordinated an attack that played as aggressively as the one he quarterbacked at BYU, the Cougars might have a shot to win this thing. In those first two games, though, Detmer’s offense had no pop to it. Instead, it lurched. Here’s something for the OC to consider: If the opponent has more talent than you, more strength and speed, and you author a basic, unimaginative attack, something you hauled out of your days in the NFL where parity is in greater supply, the more talented side will beat you.
Some creativity is required. Relying on pure execution is simply not enough.
That fundamental principle played a huge role in BYU hauling its collective football carcass out of mediocrity back when LaVell initially took over. And it is needed just as much now. Defenses might be more sophisticated than they used to be, but offensive enlightenment remains a must.
So far, that’s been lacking. And Utah will take advantage of Detmer’s reliance on predictable and standardized methodology, utilizing that aforementioned athleticism to negate any advancements in execution.
One wildcard could be flipped in the Cougars’ favor if their defense rocks and rattles Huntley, causing him to jump out of the pocket too quickly, aborting pass plays and using his mobility too much. If he turns the ball over multiple times, it could rupture Troy Taylor’s offense and jumpstart BYU’s heretofore stagnant attack.
Whittingham is fully aware of and prepared for that possibility, having hammered into his quarterback’s head the notion to stay calm in all the potential hubbub, utilizing his speed just enough to keep the defense off balance — without feeding it with panic — and keeping his eyes downfield on one Darren Carrington.
It’s only a guess, as all predictions ultimately are, but Utah fends off improved play by the Cougars, all around, enough to win this game by the count of 24-17.
GORDON MONSON hosts “The Big Show” with Spence Checketts weekdays from 3-7 p.m. on 97.5 FM and 1280 AM The Zone.