This may look like the easy choice, picking the team that lost the previous Super Bowl to win a conference championship and get back to that stage, being more motivated by the defeat.
Makes sense, right? Except nobody ever does it.
Not since the Buffalo Bills of the early 1990s, who kept winning AFC championships and losing Super Bowls, has a Super Bowl runner-up successfully defended a conference title. That’s crazy when you think about it. In the latest example, Carolina went 6-10 last season after falling to Denver in the Super Bowl. But that’s the NFL, with so much competitive balance and the schedule, free agency and the draft all conspiring against the top teams.
History gives the Atlanta Falcons barely more than a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, much less playing in another Super Bowl. Is that enough background to establish my courage in picking them to win the NFC championship?
The Falcons have the comfort of playing in the NFC South, the jolt that comes from moving into a new stadium and the talent that carried them to a 28-3 lead over New England in the Super Bowl before it all crumbled on them. And they have the local angles I crave, with former Utah defensive lineman Derrick Shelby returning from an injury after missing last season’s playoff run and ex-BYU quarterback Steve Sarkisian becoming the offensive coordinator. Wade Harman, a former Utah State player, coaches Atlanta’s tight ends, a productive group.
Kyle Shanahan is now San Francisco’s coach, so here’s Sarkisian. He was promoted as Alabama’s offensive coordinator for two College Football Playoff games last season, then joined the Falcons. His work will be fascinating to watch. It helps that the Falcons are loaded with talent.
Sports Illustrated ranked the top 400 players in the NFL, and Atlanta has eight of the best 116: receiver Julio Jones (No. 9), quarterback Matt Ryan (No. 28), center Alex Mack (No. 32), cornerback Desmond Trufant (No. 44), running backs Tevin Coleman (No. 91) and Devonta Freeman (No. 92), defensive end Vic Beasley (No. 114) and offensive tackle Jake Matthews (No. 116). Nobody in the league, not even New England, can match that top-tier talent.
The Falcons will have challengers in the NFC. Green Bay and Seattle will be tough to dismiss in the playoffs, although Atlanta beat those teams by an average of 19.5 points last January. As we know, that history won’t help in the coming postseason. But after a 2016 season when the Falcons were a novelty, they’ll be back with even more substance this year.